ÌâÄ¿ÄÚÈÝ
¼×¡¢ÒÒ¡¢±ûÈýÈË×é³ÉÒ»×飬²Î¼ÓÒ»¸ö´³¹ØÓÎÏ·ÍÅÌåÈü£®ÈýÈ˸÷×Ô¶ÀÁ¢´³¹Ø£¬ÆäÖм״³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£¬¼×¡¢ÒÒ¶¼´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£¬ÒÒ¡¢±û¶¼´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£®Ã¿ÈË´³¹Ø³É¹¦¼Ç2·Ö£¬ÈýÈ˵÷ÖÖ®ºÍ¼ÇΪС×éÍÅÌå×Ü·Ö£®
£¨I£©ÇóÒÒ¡¢±û¸÷×Ô´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊ£»
£¨II£©ÇóÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊ£»
£¨III£©ÈôÍÅÌå×Ü·Ö²»Ð¡ÓÚ4·Ö£¬ÔòС×é¿É²Î¼Ó¸´Èü£®Çó¸ÃС×é²Î¼Ó¸´ÈüµÄ¸ÅÂÊ£®
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
£¨I£©ÇóÒÒ¡¢±û¸÷×Ô´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊ£»
£¨II£©ÇóÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊ£»
£¨III£©ÈôÍÅÌå×Ü·Ö²»Ð¡ÓÚ4·Ö£¬ÔòС×é¿É²Î¼Ó¸´Èü£®Çó¸ÃС×é²Î¼Ó¸´ÈüµÄ¸ÅÂÊ£®
£¨I£©ÈýÈ˸÷×Ô¶ÀÁ¢´³¹Ø£¬ÆäÖм״³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£¬
¼×¡¢ÒÒ¶¼´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£¬ÒÒ¡¢±û¶¼´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
ÉèÒÒ´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪP1£¬±û´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪP2
¡ßÒÒ±û¶ÀÁ¢´³¹Ø£¬
¸ù¾Ý¶ÀÁ¢Ê¼þͬʱ·¢ÉúµÄ¸ÅÂʹ«Ê½µÃ£º
½âµÃP1=
£¬P2=
£®
¼´ÒÒ´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£¬±û´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£®
£¨II£©ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·Ö£¬¼´¼×¡¢ÒÒ¡¢±ûÈýÈËÖÐÇ¡ÓÐ2È˹ý¹Ø£¬¶øÁíÍâÒ»ÈËû¹ý¹Ø£®
Éè¡°ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·Ö¡±ÎªÊ¼þA£¬
ÔòP(A)=(1-
)¡Á
¡Á
+
¡Á(1-
)¡Á
+
¡Á
¡Á(1-
)=
£®
¼´ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£®
£¨III£©ÍÅÌå×Ü·Ö²»Ð¡ÓÚ4·Ö£¬¼´ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·Ö»ò6·Ö£¬
Éè¡°ÍÅÌå×Ü·Ö²»Ð¡ÓÚ4·Ö¡±ÎªÊ¼þB£¬
ÓÉ£¨II£©ÖªÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£¬
ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ6·Ö£¬¼´3È˶¼´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
¡Á
¡Á
=
£®
ËùÒԲμӸ´ÈüµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪP£¨B£©=
+
=
£®
¼´¸ÃС×é²Î¼Ó¸´ÈüµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
£®
| 1 |
| 3 |
¼×¡¢ÒÒ¶¼´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
ÉèÒÒ´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪP1£¬±û´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪP2
¡ßÒÒ±û¶ÀÁ¢´³¹Ø£¬
¸ù¾Ý¶ÀÁ¢Ê¼þͬʱ·¢ÉúµÄ¸ÅÂʹ«Ê½µÃ£º
|
½âµÃP1=
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
¼´ÒÒ´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
£¨II£©ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·Ö£¬¼´¼×¡¢ÒÒ¡¢±ûÈýÈËÖÐÇ¡ÓÐ2È˹ý¹Ø£¬¶øÁíÍâÒ»ÈËû¹ý¹Ø£®
Éè¡°ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·Ö¡±ÎªÊ¼þA£¬
ÔòP(A)=(1-
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 10 |
¼´ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
| 3 |
| 10 |
£¨III£©ÍÅÌå×Ü·Ö²»Ð¡ÓÚ4·Ö£¬¼´ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·Ö»ò6·Ö£¬
Éè¡°ÍÅÌå×Ü·Ö²»Ð¡ÓÚ4·Ö¡±ÎªÊ¼þB£¬
ÓÉ£¨II£©ÖªÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ4·ÖµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
| 3 |
| 10 |
ÍÅÌå×Ü·ÖΪ6·Ö£¬¼´3È˶¼´³¹Ø³É¹¦µÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 15 |
ËùÒԲμӸ´ÈüµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪP£¨B£©=
| 3 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 15 |
| 11 |
| 30 |
¼´¸ÃС×é²Î¼Ó¸´ÈüµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪ
| 11 |
| 30 |
Á·Ï°²áϵÁдð°¸
Ïà¹ØÌâÄ¿