Decision-thinking is not unlikepoker—it often matters not only what you think, but also what others think youthink and what you think they think you think. The mental process (过程) is similar. Naturally, thiscard game has often been of considerable interest to people who are, by anystandards, good thinkers.

Thegreat mathematician John Von Neumann was one of the founders of game theory. Inparticular, he showed that all games fall into two classes: there are what hecalled games of “perfect information”, games like chess where the players can’thide anything or play tricks: they don’t win by chance, but by means of logicand skills. Then there are games of “imperfect information”, like poker, inwhich it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is betterthan another.

One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfectinformation. Quite the reverse.Business, politics, life itself are games which we must normally play with veryimperfect information. Business decisions are often made with many unknown andunknowable factors (因素) which would even puzzle (困惑) best poker players. But few business people find itcomfortable to admit that they are taking a chance, and many still prefer tobelieve that they are playing chess, not poker.

The subject discussed in this text is _______.


  1. A.
    the process of reaching decisions
  2. B.
    the difference between poker and chess
  3. C.
    the secret of making good business plans
  4. D.
    the value of information in winning games
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