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My father is a smart man. He spent many years of his life listening to people’s arguments, first as assistant district lawyer and then as a judge. My dad knows rubbish rhetoric when he hears it.
One of his favorite phrases is: “If you don’t have anything smart to say, then don’t say it at all.” Yet, for all of his legal training and life experience, he can’t help but keep talking about the Mega Millions jackpot.
We all know the odds(几率)of winning the jackpot this evening with one ticket are extraordinarily low ... 1 in 175, 711, 536, to be exact. Still, people go out and buy hundreds of tickets with the hopes of becoming wealthier beyond their dreams. Why? There are two possible explanations for this “irrationality”(不理智).
One idea is that the way we calculate odds in our heads has nothing to do with mathematical odds in the traditional sense. We don’t go to the mathematical odds table and say, “Well, this would be a terrible investment. I think I’m better off putting my money in the bank!” Rather, it has everything with the ability to picture an event happening.
My father, for instance, watches the news every night and sees people winning the lottery(彩票). Therefore, he thinks the chance of him winning the lottery is much higher than they actually are.
The second thought is that the expected effect of playing cannot be represented merely by the odds. My father and, I’m sure, others get a thrill from the mere idea of winning. He loves imagining what it would be like to actually win and losing doesn’t really affect him. Sure, he’s disappointed, but it’s “better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.” When you combine the utility of thinking you can win with the utility of actually winning (no matter how small the chance of that occurring), it’s worth it for many people to spend the one dollar on a ticket.
My analysis is that both factors are at play in taking a chance on the lottery. My father and others really do underestimate the odds of winning, but the thrill of participation is not denied by a realistic assessment of the odds. Still, I would probably put my finger on the scale for the first explanation.
All told, a review of the odds of other events happening confirms that there just aren’t many events that occur with less frequency than your winning the Mega Millions jackpot. Look at the graph below, you may understand some:
In many ways, it’s like the lottery, something that features often on television and about which people fantasize, but that rarely happens.
So, when you watch, along with my Pa, to see if your lucky number is drawn this evening, keep in mind three things: that your number almost certainly won’t come up; that you are still going to have fun; and that, finally, a lot of other things are more likely to happen—but getting eaten by a shark isn’t one of them.
【小题1】It can be learned from the article that ________.
| A．the Mega Millions jackpot is the last lottery to win in the world |
| B．a judge in that country can’t talk about lottery because it is illegal |
| C．the writer doesn’t buy lottery, for he never hopes to become rich |
| D．In spite of little possibility, a lot of people spend money on lottery |
| A．show chances that those things take place are fewer |
| B．support the writer’s arguments on the lottery tickets |
| C．indicate no one can win the Mega Millions jackpot |
| D．say shark attack death will seldom happen this year |
| A．If one has mathematical odds, he can win the prize more easily. |
| B．Only those who have irrationality buy hundreds of lottery tickets. |
| C．The Mega Millions jackpot is very popular in the writer’s country. |
| D．Winning lottery is a shortcut to achieve the dream of being rich. |
| A．effective | B．ridiculous | C．contradictory | D．astonishing |
| A．The Popular Mega Millions Jackpot | B．Lottery is Merely a Trick |
| C．Mega Million is Like a Shark Attack | D．Be rich, Buy Lottery Soon |
She always wore a flower in her hair. Always, Mostly I thought it looked 1 . A flower to work? To my knowledge no one had questioned the young woman why a flower 2 her to work each day. In fact, we probably would have been more curious if she had 3 without it.
She did so one day 4 . She delivered a project to my office. “I 5 there is no flower in your hair today,” I said 6 . “I’m so used to seeing you wear one 7 it almost seems as if something is 8 .” “Oh, yes” she replied quietly, in a rather sad voice. This was far from her 9 bright personality, I knew I had questioned something 10 than a lost flower.
“Today is the anniversary（周年纪念）of mother’s death. I miss her so much I guess I’m a bit 11 . Oh, and about the flower you asked about. When I was a little girl, my mother 12 often put flowers in my hair. But when I was 15 she died of cancer, I’ve just always worn a flower in my hair 13 -it made me feel as though she were 14 me, if only in spirit. Today, however, I think she would like a 15 that I am becoming self-dependent, after ten years of her death. And it seems that it is the flower that has to 16 .”
She met my eyes then smiled sadly. “I don’t need to wear a flower to be 17 her. It was just an outward sign of my treasured 18 ---they’re still there even with the flower gone…Oh, here’s the 19 I hope it meets with your agreement.” She handed me the neatly prepared document, signed, with a hand–drawn 20 , below her name.
1．A．stupid B．childish C．strange D．rare
2．A．accompanied B．brought C．allowed D．encouraged
3．A．shown up B．made up C．done up D．dressed up
4．A．before B．after C．when D．until
5．A．sense B．discover C．doubt D．notice
6．A．casually B．firmly C．calmly D．worriedly
7．A．as B．that C．but D．and
8．A．missing B．going C．happening D．changing
9．A．normal B．general C．common D．usual
10．A．prettier B．better C．bigger D．earliter
11．A． grey B．yellow C．white D．blue
12．A．would B．should C．could D．must
13．A．too B．since C．then D．ever
14．A．upon B．for C．in D．with
15．A．word B．sign C．label D．model
16．A．melt B．die C．go D．pass
17．A．thought about B．reminded of C．remembered as D．cared for
18．A．impressions B．memories C．secrets D．emotions
19．A．story B．ending C．project D．outline
20．A．mark B．paint C．date D．flower
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阅读理解
Ten years ago, Pierre Omidyar, a software engineer working in California’s Silicon Valley, began
thinking about how to use the internet for a trading system in which buyers and sellers could establish
a genuine market price. Over a long holiday weekend he wrote the computer code. At first, a trickle
of users arrived at his website-including his girlfriend, who traded PEZ candy dispensers. By the end
of 1995, several thousand auctions had been completed and interest in eBay was growing. And it grew
and grew. From this modest beginning, eBay has become a global giant, with around 150m registered
users worldwide who are set to buy and sell goods worth more than $40 billion this year.
The remarkable tale of eBay’s growth points to some important lessons for any business trying to
operate online-and today that includes, one way or another, most firms. The commercial opportunities
presented by an expanding global web seem almost limitless. But the pace of change is rapid, and so
is the ferocity（激烈）of competition. To succeed, firms need agility(灵活), an open mind and the
ability to reinvent themselves repeatedly. Most of all, they need to listen carefully to their customers,
paying close attention to what they do and don’t want.
Such qualities, of course, would be valuable in any kind of business. Yet for online firms they are
not a luxury, but necessary for mere survival. This is true for a variety of reasons. The internet is not
only growing, but changing rapidly-which, in turn, changes the rules of the game for any business
relying on it. The barriers to entry are still low compared with those for most offline businesses,
which means that just keeping track of your existing rivals is not enough. These may not represent the
greatest competitive threat tomorrow or the next day. That could come from a number of
directions-a firm in a different type of online business; one that does not yet exist; or even from one
of your own customers. On top of all this, the behavior of many consumers is constantly changing
as well, as individuals discover new ways to shop and interact with each other via the web.
All these factors make the internet a dangerous place to do business, as well as one full of
promise. eBay’s history demonstrates both of those things. It is probably safe to say that nothing
like eBay could have existed without the internet-or could have grown so fast. Even though there have
been signs of the firm’s blistering(快速的) pace slowing a bit in America, its most “mature” market,
there remain vast opportunities overseas, particularly, some argue, in China. Meg Whitman, eBay’s
chief executive, believes the company is still only at the beginning of what it could achieve.
1. What is the purpose of the first paragraph?
A. To introduce the founder of eBay and his girlfriend.
B. To demonstrate how clever the founder of eBay is.
C. To show how eBay started and has grown.
D. To introduce eBay to people.
2. Which of the following best summarizes Pierre Omidyar’s intention with regard to eBay?
A. To set up a global internet business.
B. To allow people to freely buy and sell on the internet at acceptable prices.
C. To set up a mechanism on the internet to allow people to trade at true market prices.
D. To se up a business mechanism for his girlfriend.
3. Which of these is it NOT necessary for a company selling on the internet to do?
A. Have the most competitive price for each of their online products.
B. Be able to change to suit the prevailing（流行的，优势的）market conditions.
C. Be prepared to consider all options and alternatives.
D. Have a good idea of what their customers do not want.
4. What does “barriers to entry are still low compared with those for most offline businesses”
in paragraph 3 mean?
A. It is easier to set up an internet business than a conventional one.
B. Internet trade is growing faster than traditional business sector.
C. It is cheaper to set up an internet business than a traditional one.
D. Companies generally prefer to do business online rather than offline.
5. Why does the article conclude that the internet “is a dangerous place to do business”?
A. Because companies that sell online may be unreliable.
B. Because there are no controls on doing business on the internet.
C. Because doing business online is unpredictable.
D. Because even companies like eBay have problems doing business online.