Question

阅读下面短文，从每题所给的四个选项中选出最佳答案.

　　When a magazine for high-school students asked its readers what life would be like in twenty years, they said: Machines would be run by solar power. Building would rotate so they could follow the sun to take maximum advantage of its light and heat. Walls would“radiate light”and“change color with the push of a button”. Food would be replaced by pills. School would be taught“by electrical impulse while we sleep”. Cars would have radar. Does this sound like the years 2000? Actually, the article was written in 1958 and the question was“What will life be like in 1978?”

　　The future is much too important to simply guess about, the way the high school students did, so experts are regularly asked to predict（预言）accurately（准确地）. By carefully studying the present, skilled businessmen, scientists, and politicians are supposedly able to figure out in advance what will happen. But can they? One expert on cities wrote: Cities of the future would not be crowded, but would have space for farms and fields. People would travel to work in“airbuses”, large all-weather helicopters carrying up to 200 passengers, when a person left the airbus station he could drive a coin-operated car equipped with radar. The radar equipment of cars would make traffic accidents“almost unheard of”. Does that sound familiar? If the expert had been accurate it would be, because he was writing in 1957. His subject was “The City of 1982”.

　　If the experts sometimes sound like high-school students, it's probably because future study is still a new field. But economic（经济的）predicting has been around for a long time. It should be accurate, and generally it is. But there have been some big mistakes in this field, too. In early 1929, most predictors saw an excellent future

for the stock market. In October of that year, the stock market had its worst losses ever.

　　One predictor knew that predictions about the future would probably be wrong. In 1957, H.J. Rand of the Rand Corporation was asked about the year 2000,“Only one thing is certain,”he answered.“Children born today will have reached the age of43.”

（1）High-school students' answers to“What would life be in 1978?”sound ________.

[　　]

A. accurate

B. imaginative

C. correct

D. OK

（2）According to the writer, forecasting is fairly accurate in ________.

[　　]

A. politics

B. science

C. agriculture

D. economics

（3）Which of the following statements is NOT true according to the passage?

[　　]

A. Predictions are accurate.

B. Professionals sometimes sound like high school students.

C. There have been some big mistakes in the field of economic forecasting.

D. Predictions about the future will probably be wrong.

（4）The present passage was most probably written ________.

[　　]

A. just before 2000

B. in 1958

C. after 1982

D. in 1957

（5）H.J. Rand's prediction about the year 2000 shows that ________.

[　　]

A. it is easy to figure out in advance what will happen

B. it is difficult to figure out in advance what will happen

C. only experts can figure out in advance what will happen

D. very few experts can figure out in advance what will happen

Answer 1

答案：B;D;A;C;B
解析：

(1) 这是一道结合文章内容分析判断题，根据短文第一段中中学生的预言二十年后人们的生活情况：Machines would be run by solar power...School would be taught“by electrical impulse while we sleep”.Cars would have radar.可以判断出，中学生的预言从总体上看充满了想像力，故最佳答案选B. (2) 这是一道细节判断题.由短文第三段中But economic predicting has been around for a long time. It should be accurate，and generally it is.可知，经济预测应该是并且常常是准确的，故D项正确. (3) 这是一道正误判断题.B、C两项可根据短文第三段中的If the experts sometimes sound like high-school students及But there have been some big mistakes in this field，too.这两处信息得到证实；D项为短文最后一段首句中的predictions about the future would probably be wrong原句；只有A项在短文中找不到依据，故A为最佳选项. (4) 这是一道推理判断题.综合短文第二段中If the expert had been accurate it would be，because he was writing in 1957.His subject was“The City of 1982”.和短文最后一段中In 1957，H.J. Rand of the Rand Corporation was asked about the year 2000.“Only one thing is certain,”he answered.“Children born today will have reached the age of 43.”这几处信息就可以推断出，这篇短文很可能是1982年之后写的，故最佳答案选C. (5) 这是道深层理解题.短文最后一段首句One predictor knew that predictions about the future would probably be mistakes.阐述了预测未来的不确定性. 该段中H.J.关于对2000年预测的话，其深层含义则是谁也无法准确地预测到明天究竟会发生什么事情，因此最佳答案应选B.